Prof started this session with this quote by Charles Kettering: “My interest is in the future because I am going to spend
the rest of my life there.” This struck a chord with me as I feel that it is
especially true. Whether we like it or not, we are all going to spend time in the future, hence we must prepare and
be ready for it today. So today, we are going to learn how to use the various
tools and models to plan for the future.
Technology Assessment and Forecasting: Developing a Framework for
Understanding What Comes Next
This
session is on Technology Assessment and Forecasting. First, we were shown a
video by Siemens which highlights the two megatrends: urbanisation and
demographic change. The video also shows how Siemens plan to tackle the
challenges that come along with the megatrends. From this video, we can
actually see that Siemens is planning for the future and this also means that
it has a rising star mentality.
And by
releasing this video to the public, Siemens is actually taking a calculated risk.
The advantage of doing so will be that it opens up avenues for feedback from
public and policymakers. Other companies which are interested for partnerships
can also approach them based on their proposed plans. However the disadvantage
of this will be that competitors will learn about your ideas and actually copy
them.
So what exactly is
technology assessment and forcasting? Technology assessment is the assessment
of a technology as it currently exist, as well as assessing its implications(social,
political, environmental, etc). One example would be the development of
driverless cars. What is the implication to cab drivers as all cars move
towards being driverless?
On the other hand,
technology forecasting refers to predicting future changes to technology in a
broad area based on current trends and technology. An example would be the
development of robotics in the next 5/10 years, and where will the technology
head towards.
Key Takeaway Points
The need for technology assessment
and forecasting has never been greater before. This is due to the exponential
growth in the range of new technology with potential world changing
significance. As a result, there comes this need to gain an understanding of
what kinds of changes a new technology innovation might bring (in social,
ethical/legal, environmental and other terms). Then because our resources are
limited, we will need to prioritize in deciding whether and when to invest in
research and development of the new innovations and technologies. This is even
more important for developing countries so who have more pressing issues at
hand. An example would be China in the past where they invested in medical
technology like the MRI technology and they were ridiculed by the developed superpowers
for not solving the more pressing issues in the short run such as poverty.
However, the leaders of China were proven right in the long run as MRI
technology helped transform them to transform into a medical hub and let them become
more developed. This shows that foresight is important as it can help a country
break out of their poverty cycle.
We
were also introduced to some of the more commonly used foresight methodologies.
A method that I felt was simple and yet cover all areas would be the SWOT
analysis. It analyses the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats
involved in a project or a business venture. Like many other methodologies,
this analysis places us in a good position to make informed decisions instead
of making decisions blindly.
Personal Rating
Lesson was
rather dry at times especially when discussing on the foresight methodologies.
Would give the lesson a 7.5/10.
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